Our job is to recognize trends early, as they emerge from non-trends or as reversals of prior trends.
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You see any succession of event's particularly independent events can have an aberrant run.
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Over time we can recognize that this movement of price to and from the trend line forms a channel, which once identified can be traded.
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This smoothing effect of price change increases as you use longer and longer periods as the average.
Some use an actual figure and some a percentage figure.
When the 9 period moving average crosses the 18 period moving average this is the set up.